Using forward-looking occupancy to predict demand and maximize efficiencies

Spotlight data focus: Football’s biggest event this year 

Booking behavior and travel demand continue to evolve. For hoteliers, this means that historical data alone no longer tells the full story. Booking windows have become less predictable, corporate travel patterns shift constantly, and competition for guests has intensified across most markets.

In this environment, relying solely on last year's performance can leave hotels one step behind. Comprehensive forward-looking projections are increasingly crucial to empower hoteliers to position themselves competitively, plan resources with confidence, and drive profitable demand. Understanding what the market will look like months from now, not just what happened in the past, is becoming a core pillar of a modern sales and operational strategy.

What is Forward-Looking Occupancy?

Forward-looking occupancy is on-the-books data, offering visibility up to a year ahead into anticipated occupancy levels for a specific region, city, or market.

Unlike search data, which relies on correlations between intent and actual bookings, "on-the-books" occupancy reflects confirmed reservations at a particular moment in time. It offers a more accurate view of demand for a given period, without the uncertainty that comes from assuming searches will convert into stays, though search data can also be a useful indicator of demand. It can be compared to previous years, at that same point in time, to show how the current year is tracking.

This level of insight removes much of the guesswork around peak periods of demand, such as those driven by major events. With clear visibility into how demand is building, hotels can make informed, data-driven decisions concerning marketing campaigns and operational planning.

Ultimately, forward-looking occupancy is not just about filling rooms. It is about optimizing revenue within the limited time and space available, ensuring that every high-demand period delivers maximum value to the business.

Optimizing Revenue Around Major Events

Events, including festivals, conferences, sporting tournaments, and concerts, can dramatically reshape local occupancy patterns. They often create intense but short-lived spikes in demand that present both opportunity and the risk of missing out.

The real challenge for hoteliers is not awareness. Most hotels know an event is coming. The differentiator is timing, as far fewer properties have clear visibility into how early demand is building and how it compares to the wider market.

Forward-looking occupancy helps you understand and potentially keep ahead of your competitive set. By tracking aggregated market-wide demand signals, hotels may elect to adjust pricing earlier and ensure that commercial decisions are aligned with actual demand rather than assumptions.

Building a Data-Driven Occupancy Strategy

A structured approach can help hoteliers turn forward-looking data into action:

• Stay on top of the data. Get access to real "on-the-books" data so that you understand what good looks like for your hotel or group, where you were at the same point last year, and what the future months are looking like.
• Map out events early. Start by reviewing the calendar for potential events in your city and mapping these well in advance.
• Benchmark performance. Compare your market view with your own on-the-books occupancy to understand how your property is performing relative to your competitive set.
• Activate targeted campaigns. Plan marketing and distribution campaigns that highlight your property's key features. This could include proximity to event venues, transport links, or services such as early check-in or bag drop, all designed to remove friction and encourage bookings around high-demand periods.

2026 Data Example: Using Football's Biggest Event to Boost Occupancy

Hoteliers in regions hosting matches this summer are understandably focused on match dates. However, forward-thinking hoteliers are also analyzing the days immediately before and after matches, which often present untapped opportunities. Data shows that demand around major football tournaments is heavily concentrated on the day of, or the day before, matches. This suggests that many fans are booking one- or two-night stays specifically to attend a game, particularly if they're traveling from farther away and want to experience a bit of the destination during their visit.

Across the 16 host cities in the United States, Mexico, and Canada, Amadeus Demand360 data shows that as of January 7, 2026, average occupancy stands at 29% on the eve and day of matches during the group stages. By contrast, occupancy on the day after matches drops to 26%, highlighting a clear opportunity to encourage longer stays.

A closer look at Mexico City reinforces this pattern. On the night before and of the first match of the tournament, average occupancy stands at 23%, up from 9% over the same period in 2025.

However, during the three days prior, occupancy averages just 13%, signaling a chance to encourage guests to explore the city in more detail before their match and make sure they are not dealing with jetlag while enjoying the game.

As any hotelier knows, longer hotel stays are valuable. They reduce operational costs through fewer room turnovers, reduce admin for the team, and decrease customer acquisition costs.

Armed with forward-looking occupancy data, hotels in host cities can design tailored offers that incentivize early arrivals and post-match stays. Partnerships with local attractions, tours, and venues can further enhance these packages, positioning the hotel as a base for exploring a destination, not just attending a match.

Highlighting Opportunities Using Data

This example highlights just one way that visibility into forward-looking occupancy can uncover new opportunities for hoteliers. By making the most of accurate, comprehensive data, hotels can make smarter decisions, respond earlier to demand signals, and extract greater value from high-impact events. In a fast-changing environment, access to forward-looking data is an important enabler of smarter business decisions.

To see forward-looking occupancy in action, Katie Moro, Vice President, Data Partnerships, Hospitality, Amadeus, introduces the first Amadeus Data in Action video on how this data helps anticipate demand and optimize performance.